¸ñÆ÷Çؾç´ëÇб³¿¡¼´Â Çлýµé¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ±³À° ¸ñÀûÀ¸·Î Á¾ÇÕ ÆÇ´Ü ´É·Â ¼ÒÇÁÆ®¿þ¾î Rational
WillÀ» ±¸¸ÅÇÏ¿´½À´Ï´Ù(2021³â 7¿ù). ±â¾÷, °ø°ø±â°ü, ¿¬±¸±â°ü
µîÀ¸·Î È°¿ëÀÌ È®»êµÇ¾î °æÀï·Â Çâ»ó¿¡ ±â¿©ÇÒ ¼ö Àֱ⸦ ±â´ëÇÕ´Ï´Ù.
Rational WillÀº ÀÇ»ç°áÁ¤³ª¹«(Decision Tree), ¸¶¸£ÄÚÇÁ ¿¬¼â(Markov Decision Process), ¿µÇâµµ(Influence Diagram), ÀÇ»ç°áÁ¤ ¸ÅÆ®¸¯½º(Decision Matrix),
Àå´ÜÁ¡ ºñ±³¹ý(Pros and Cons) µî 5°¡Áö ¹æ¹ý·ÐÀ» À¯±âÀûÀ¸·Î ¿¬°èÇÏ°í ¿©±â¿¡ º£ÀÌÁö¾È Ãß·Ð(Bayesian
Inference)À» È°¿ëÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖµµ·Ï Çѵ¥ ¹Àº ¸Å¿ì À¯¿ëÇÑ ¼ÒÇÁÆ®¿þ¾îÀÔ´Ï´Ù. ÇöÀå¿¡¼, »ç¹«½Ç¿¡¼, ¿¬±¸½Ç¿¡¼ ¿©·¯ °¡Áö ÆÇ´ÜÀ» ÇØ¾ß ÇÏ´Â °ü¸®ÀÚ ¹× ¸®´õ, ¿¬±¸ÀÚ, ³ª¾Æ°¡ ÇÁ·ÎÁ§Æ® °ü¸®ÀÚ, ¿£Áö´Ï¾î, IT Àü¹®°¡ µî¿¡°Ô ÇʼöÇ°ÀÌ µÉ °ÍÀ¸·Î ÆÇ´ÜÇÕ´Ï´Ù.
Æ÷ÇԵǾî ÀÖ´Â ÀÇ»ç°áÁ¤/Á¤Ã¥°áÁ¤ ¹æ¹ý·Ð°ú Çൿ°æÁ¦ÇÐ
- ÀÇ»ç°áÁ¤³ª¹«(Decision Tree)
- ¸¶¸£ÄÚÇÁ ¿¬¼â(Markov Decision Process)
- ¿µÇâµµ(Influence Diagram)
- ÀÇ»ç°áÁ¤ ¸ÅÆ®¸¯½º(Decision Matrix)
- Àå´ÜÁ¡ ºñ±³¹ý(Pros and Cons)
- º£ÀÌÁö¾È Ãß·Ð(Bayesian Inference)
È°¿ëµÇ´Â ÇÔ¼ö ¹× ±â´É µé
- ´Ù±âÁØ ÀÇ»ç°áÁ¤(Multiple-criteria decision
analysis)
- º£ÀÌÁö¾È ÀÌ·Ð(Bayesian Theorem)
- ¸®½ºÅ© ºÐ¼®(Risk Profile)
- ¸óÅ×Ä®·Î ½Ã¹Ä·¹À̼Ç(Monte Carlo Simulation)
- È¿¿ëÇÔ¼ö ¹× È¿¿ë(Utility Function and Utility Value)
- È®·üºÐÆ÷(Probability Distribution)
- È®·üÁö¹èÀÌ·Ð(Stochastic Dominance): ºÒÈ®½Ç¼ºÀ» ÆÇ´ÜÇÏ´Â ¸Å¿ì °·ÂÇÑ °³³ä
- Value at Risk, Entropy µî
À§ ¹æ¹ý·Ð°ú ÇÔ¼öµéÀ» Àß ¸ð¸£´õ¶óµµ Á¦½ÃµÇ´Â ´Ü°è¸¦ µû¶ó°¡±â¸¸ ÇÏ¸é ¼ÒÇÁÆ®¿þ¾î°¡ °è»êÀ» ÀÚµ¿ÈÇÏ¿© ´õ ÁÁÀº °á°ú¸¦ âÃâÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖµµ·Ï Áö¿øÇÕ´Ï´Ù.
ÀÌ¿Ü Bayesian TheoremÀ» Àü¹®ÀûÀ¸·Î È°¿ëÇÏ¿© ÇöÀåÀÇ ¹®Á¦¸¦
½±°Ô ÇØ°áÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ°Ô ÇÏ´Â Bayesian Doctor ¼ÒÇÁÆ®¿þ¾îµµ ÀÖ½À´Ï´Ù. ÀÚ¼¼È÷ ¾Ë¾Æº¸±â